At Telford for the numbers to be correct, his (Campion) vote (9138 from memory) would have to be 50% postal, and mine (3363) would have to be zero from postal. Judging from all the piles of votes on the counters' tables.
And even then I would say mine were over 80% of his, but probably less than 90%, in the hall after a walk past all the counting tables as they were nearly finishing the counting job.
Assuming that's how they work it out - just adding the postal votes at the end.
Can we find out what the postal votes were?
I couldn't help but notice that the Police Area Returning Officer had introduced Campion unnecessarily enthusiastically at the first electoral briefing we attended online. Yesterday he chatted for a while with Mr C before the count, and avoided me, and only gave the minimum talk he had to give. He defended the thoroughness of the count when I queried the figures with him and the lady in charge (Howe?).
The Telford & Wrekin count was the only one I attended, and it was possibly a fix of some kind. I have as yet received no explanation which allays that assessment. They did not wish to discuss any details but only refuse my enquiry.
Nomination
I feel almost sure that at the nomination stage they only let my 100 signatures through when they knew I'd booked West Mercia wide leafleting which could not be cancelled. It would have looked very messy had they got rid of me then as they did Antonio in Bedfordshire.
We had threatened a report to the Electoral Commission when they flat refused to give me a copy of the electoral roll at either Telford or Shrewsbury Council. Without that I could not complete the nomination form. Unblocking that took two weeks, and time nearly ran out with Easter holiday approaching.
We just made it but then they refused my 100 signatures saying they were listed as being in 'West Mercia' exactly as David Sidaway had said would be fine at the Telford briefing.
I was allowed to write the actual council they were from in the column to the right and initial. That was only after they realised I had booked the leaflet drop West Mercia wide, and how would they be able to explain to the public me being missing from the ballot?
As it was, no other candidate leafleted at all as if by agreement amongst themselves - Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and Green. Many people noticed The Teds were the only party to be interested in talking to them, and to propose new policies. Strangely the only newspaper to mention the election of Police Commissioner in our area until the closing stages, The Shrewsbury Chronicle, failed to mention that I was one of the candidates.....
The delay in my nomination and the struggle to get onto the ballot lost me two key weeks campaigning. My leaflet was just too late for postal voters who knew nothing about me apart from finding my name and The Teds on the list as they voted - especially as all media were silent about the PCC elections until after the postal vote was complete, and my name was missing as in The Shrewsbury Chronicle report.
The Votes
If a chunk of Campion's 73,000 total votes this time in reality came from me at about 15,000 or possibly 30,000 across all the Council areas (Taking the Telford deficit at 3,000 or 4,000 or even 5,000 would not be impossible judging from the vote piles), then timesing that by seven - 30,000 Telford turnout and 214,000 the full turnout of whole region) which is possible, he would have actually lost, and West Mercia would now probably be a Labour Police Area.
Had my leaflet which linked to my online campaign reached postal voters before they voted, judging by my number of votes at Telford, I would probably have won.
We will never know, of course.
Robin Tilbrook says the Teds ordered a recount at Doncaster and 5000 of our votes were found in the Labour candidates box! Teds won the Mayoralty after that challenge - a few years ago. I was not clued up enough beforehand, and I was just shocked when I saw the figure they gave me. When I recovered my composure, it was too late. I surrendered as all other of the seven areas bar one were already fixed. Robin Tilbrook said I should have demanded a recount, but I failed to do so.
If postal voting was massively different to ballot box voting as well as equal or bigger in scale (the only possible explanation), why would that be?
Why would Telford be a good area for Teds compared to others? It's multiracial and metropolitan and that kind of place would not normally favour scrapping diversity targets.
Turnout was quite high compared to other areas which is another interesting factor, as so many polling stations said they were very quiet on polling day. One village I heard from only had 20 voters by 4pm.
Was there a postal vote harvesting effect as well as possible vote swapping? This is a known practice amongst certain communities in particular, and Telford has such.
Despite not winning, the exercise of standing in general was worthwhile in that I learned so much about the topics, the people, and the processes. It cost me around £21,000 for leaflet printing and distribution. The Teds are now a known political force across the region, and could start entering candidates to other elections, albeit we need body armour to challenge returning officers' decisions and statements at every turn.
Walking round the hall for that first half hour, I swelled with pride at the effectiveness of the campaign, after only seven weeks dedication to the campaign - looking at the boxes which placed us just a fraction behind Campion, and up there with the two leaders, dwarfing the Lib Dems (half of my vote) and the Greens (half of Lib Dem).
Look at the smile on my face with Ted! After seeing my piles of votes and those of the other candidates I was on cloud nine thinking we might do it.
Before the shocking totals were announced.
If only I had found a reliable agents network which could have attended every count and demanded recount on each occasion. Even then there were so many postal vote opening locations on so many days. I was fully stretched running the campaign every day, and failed to attend even one count other than Telford. I asked quite a few to help but in the event this did not work out. You can't build a network in two weeks, and most people prioritise their own battles, not someone else's, as they don't understand the significance of what is going on.
That said I know how well we did at Telford as I saw it with my own eyes. No one can take that away from me and my supporters even if the system has successfully shoed in a hated Police Commissioner for yet another term of four years, by whatever methods this was done.
My Proposal To The Electoral Commission Survey
Candidates should have a copy of the electoral roll as of right as soon as they request one.
Candidates should be permitted to agree a total count at each counting table for all votes before the votes are passed to the RO or PARO.
Otherwise the RO or PARO can swap the votes around undetected where the candidates are not permitted. This I believe happened at Telford on Friday 3rd May.
The key moment to capture the total of the votes is at the tables before they go to RO or PARO. If there are 50 tables, it would take about five minutes total to agree the totals were about right at each table, if candidates are allowed as now to observe the actual counting work.
If this failure in the voting system is not corrected, standing for office becomes completely pointless.
At Doncaster in a previous election, 5000 votes from Teds ended up in Labour's box for example, discovered during a 'recount'.
Look at Mr Overton's quote above under my picture in this post, filed by Shropshire Star. What would you think it means?
Overton said - 'The 'appetite for change' could be seen in several areas across the vote. ' Why was my picture attached to these words of Overton, and jpeg made? The Shropshire Star seemed to hinting at something.
Overton would have known the true picture of the voting being the Labour candidate.
It doesn't sound like Campion was chosen for office once again by the voters does it?
With at least two candidates saying the visible votes indicated that Campion lost, surely the Electoral Commission should look into this election, and if my worst fears are confirmed, have the result overturned. Talk to the vote counters.