Brexit did not lose us trade or GDP

                        By Sir John Redwood on May 11, 2025                     

I am fed up with the idiot soundbite that says the UK lost 4% of GDP thanks to Brexit. This is based on a long term Remain forecast that said the UK might lose trade with the EU after Brexit which in turn over the longer term could mean 4% less productivity gain than otherwise.

This was always wrong. We now know our trade with the EU has risen since 2016, not fallen.We know our GDP has followed a similar path to the EU, hit by Covid lockdowns. It has not fallen 4% more.

We have not been allowed many of the gains we can now make if we use our freedom to run a more pro growth policy than the EU does.

The idea that productivity would underperform was based on the idea that as trade fell so there would be less international competition to drive cheaper and better.

This was based on a wrong view we would not be able to trade more with non EU, which of course we are doing. Trade Agreements with the TPP and now India will help, but trade anyway is growing faster with non EU and is the majority of our trade as it was prior to the referendum.

So wrong on all counts. Brexit did not reduce GDP. Trade with EU has not fallen, Trade with non EU has continued to grow faster. There is plenty of competition.

Meanwhile UK public sector productivity has slumped through bad management. Government has been busy banning or forcing out of business highly productive sectors like oil, gas, oil refining and ICE cars which have been big exports to the EU.