The Chancellor’s numbers do not add up
By Sir John Redwood on July 9, 2025
There is general agreement amongst the commentariat that the Chancellor faces a big bill this autumn to make the numbers add up. There are spending cuts that Parliament will not accept, particularly in welfare and the pensioner fuel allowance, There will be changes from the OBR probably having to cut its forecasts of productivity growth and GDP growth. There could be cuts to forecast revenues as the reality of rich people leaving hits home. Here are the questions the Chancellor needs to answer and issues she needs to tackle.
- How much is the extra cost of pensioner fuel grant?
- How much is the extra cost of disability benefits?
What reduction needs to be made in public sector productivity forecasts, and how more does that add to public service costs?
How much slower will UK growth be and what does that add to the deficit?5. How much is added to spending to handle record levels of illegal migrants, including hotels, legal costs and benefits?
How much is the steel industry losing and how much money will the government need to give it to keep making steel?
What are the current additional losses and costs of the nationalised railway and HS 2?
How much extra is going to be given to France to secure a new border deal?
How much money will be given to Mauritius to take Chagos in the early years of the deal?
All this probably adds up to a new bigger black hole than the £22 bn the Chancellor claimed to fix with the last budget.