During 19 years on my own as a political consultant, I have barely ever lost an incumbent race. And in my experience, an incumbent usually does not lose to the opposition, but rather due to a misreading of public opinion and a flawed strategy of their own making.

Observing from the outside, I think that the opposition in Hungary has done many things right. In fact, I just wrote a piece about that (which was quoted by Newsmax in the U.S. and Georgia Today). But it’s also and always analytically illuminating to look at it from the other side.

Not so long ago, Viktor Orbán appeared unbeatable. He had rewritten the constitution and dominated the media landscape. But last night, the scale of the defeat was striking.

What went wrong? What were the strategic and tactical miscalculations, missed warning signs and misreading of the political demand?

I see a series of classic incumbent mistakes.

Underestimating a Credible Challenger

In previous elections, Orbán successfully fragmented the opposition and branded it as “left-wing radicals” or “puppets of Brussels.” That playbook failed against Péter Magyar. As a former Fidesz insider, Magyar spoke the language of the conservative base and unified all anti-Orbán votes.

Fighting the Last War

Orbán’s 2022 victory was built on the fear that the opposition would drag Hungary into the war in Ukraine. By 2026, that rhetoric felt hollow. While the government spent millions on “pro-peace” billboards, Hungarians were looking at their grocery bills. With EU funds frozen due to rule-of-law disputes and the economy sluggish, the public’s anxiety shifted from foreign tanks to domestic bank accounts.

Losing “Kitchen Table” Issues

While Orbán spent his final years on the global stage—hosting US politicians and positioning himself as a leader of the international far-right—the infrastructure at home was crumbling.

Healthcare: Long wait times and decaying hospitals became a central campaign pillar for the opposition.

Education: Years of teacher protests finally coalesced into a unified voting bloc.

It seems to me that during the campaign, Orbán tried to change the main issue. I think it would have been wiser from a strategic point of view to try and win back ownership over what was the most important issue for voters, namely the economy.

Misreading Public Opinion

After sixteen years in power, the sheer duration of the incumbency becomes a challenge. Even if things would be going economically well, many voters would simply want a fresh face. Fidesz failed to renew from the inside and didn’t look like the future.

No King without a Kingdom

Fidesz’s collapse becomes most apparent when looking at rural Hungary. The opposition won well beyond Budapest and the major urban centers. This undercut one of Fidesz’s long-standing advantages in the electoral system.

Louis Perron