In the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the regional elections this Sunday ended with a political bombshell.

The AfD (Alternative for Germany) from the very right of the political spectrum won a spectacular victory with 44% of the vote. This is even a bit better than the last surveys before the election had indicated and more than any party in any German state has won during the past ten years.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which had governed the state so far, lost more than half of their vote share (!) and came in second with roughly 18% of the vote.

It is common practice in Germany that the biggest party usually gets a chance to form a governing coalition, which it will then normally lead with the state Prime Minister. This is where things get tricky for the AfD since (almost) all other parties exclude to form a coalition with it.

At the time of writing, it is unlikely but still possible that the AfD will inch towards an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament once all the votes are counted. In that case, it wouldn’t need a partner to head the regional government.

It’s more likely, however, that a small, leftist party, the so-called BSW (Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht) will be the kingmaker. The BSW could make an implicit, tacit agreement with the AfD and at least not block it in voting for the Prime Minister of the state. In the third round of voting, a relative majority is enough to elect the state Prime Minister. Or it could of course do the very same with the alliance of all the other parties (CDU, SPD, Greens, Left) who will come together with the goal of blocking the AfD from clinching to power.

I personally think that the best way to deal with populists is to let them govern. Germany has for sure a very particular history, but the strategy of excluding the AfD from power has only made it stronger. In neighboring Austria, the similarly right-wing FPÖ is governing in several states, and the world did not stop turning. In particular from a Democracy standpoint, it feels wrong to exclude the party that has won such a clear victory from power and for all the other (politically very diverse) parties to form a coalition with only one thing in common, namely to block the AfD.

No matter what will happen in Saxony-Anhalt, the election will have consequences at the national level and for the government lead by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. There are more state elections in two weeks, so nothing will happen in the open until then, but behind the scenes, I’m sure that there are emergency talks going on right now.

It would, however, be a mistake to assume that the CDU will respond by reconsidering its self-imposed ban on cooperation with the AfD. If anything, the opposite may happen. Within the CDU, those who believe that Merz has gone too far in trying to win back AfD voters by taking a tougher line on immigration could gain ground. Many in the party will likely argue that the result confirms a familiar political maxim: voters tend to prefer the original to the imitation. They will say that the CDU should stop trying to compete with the AfD on its own terrain and instead sharpen the distinctions between the two parties.

In any case, today’s vote will further increase pressure on Merz and his government. Once the regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will be over, the CDU might look for a reset and a new chancellor to lead the national government.

Louis Perron